So I slept over my gf's last night, got back home around 130 pm today and signed up for the 25k,10k, and 4500ss....10k first hand I repop with KK guy calls, flop comes 3 diamonds, I got the Kd. I basically get it all in on the flop with the shallow 1500 stacks, he calls with flopped flush obv(36dd), gg me...4500ss, I end up busting with tptk into set....25k im still goin - wish me luck!
So I was driving to my girls thinking about my expectation and how ridiculous this has been...so I decided to run some numbers to get an "idea" of what my expectation is. Now that I dropped 200s for now, Im going to just calculate 65s/100s, as well as mtts. Lets say I average 1000 games a month, and say my ROI in 100s is 6%, with a 10% ROI in 65s(no idea where my true ROI is, but I'd think that my ROI is higher than this).....Lets say 600 100s and 400 65s....as for mtts lets say I do 50 a month, avg buy in 100, with a longterm ROI of 60%(rather keep my estimates conservative)...sooooo
600 100s = 65,400 a month in buy ins, 3924 in profit(6%), 1620 in RB = 5544.00/mo
400 65s = 28,400 a month in buy ins, 2840 in profits(10%), 720 in RB = 3560/mo
50 mtts = 5,000 in buy ins, 3000 in profits(60%), 3000/mo
That equals 12,104.00 profit per month + ARPs which usually equals to around 80-90,000 a month or roughly 1300, so 13,400 lets say.
I think thats a conservative estimate of my profitability, and at the same time 150k for the year would make me really happy. So lets say I take the last 4 months and compare them to my expectation. Dec I was +6k over expectation, Jan +1k, Feb -10k behind expectation, March -7500 behind, thus going into April Im technically 10k behind expectation.....all in all this 150k mark is still not that far away, but it would be nice to run at "expectation" for once.
-ps - if anyone has any info that could help me narrow down true ROI's in these games Id appreciate it.
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2 comments:
your rois should be higher I think in all of those, unless if the play has improved a lot. Then again I never tracked any of my ap info so I have no real numbers to go by, I'm pretty sure 100% roi or better in mtts isnt that hard to maintain, at least higher then 60%.
You could figure your Roi's out at least for SNG's. I assume you have pokertracker get the program from reign to convert your HH and learn your current roi for those level's.
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