Month has ended, some random thoughts

September has finally came to a close and I'm up roughly 500 bucks playing, 1700 in staking, 1k credits for cash, and about 4-500 in rakeback, putting me roughly +3700......Im fine with that really, as I have no need for cash and felt like I played decent....I was was at one point -6k playing on the month, so to get positive I guess I shouldn't complain much?? I had an amazing 1.5% ROI in the month over 320 mtts. I rule. So some random thoughts poker related

-why do people play strong 100rs,200rs,1ks, etc? As time progresses more and more people are learning mtts - the losers are becoming breakeven, the breakeven are small winners, small winners have become big winners, etc....theres so many names popping up that no one knew of a year or two ago that are now crushing big...yeh variance helps, but these guys also play pretty good. I was on P5s the other day and looking at HH's at 6 max 100r tables with like 4-5 winners - wheres the edge? Another example is the 1k on AP - usually gets about 120 entrants - Id say atleast 40-50 players are winners - so lets assume 50 people are winners, that means at a 9 man table your looking at about 3-4 winners a table - wheres the longterm edge? Of course you can still have an edge with these types of tables even if the winners are just small winners, but who wants to deal with 1ks and small edges? There will be one day when 100r's are unbeatable or near breakeven unless the US regulates poker. One day.

-why do people show bluffs?? I understand if you want to tilt someone, otherwise its the dumbest thing ever. Example - I was deep in the 20k on AP 2nite when I got 3 bet and folded - he showed K3. Amazing buddy - I had been opening a ton so of course you'll be able to 3 bet me with garbage.....What does this accomplish? Well I'm not tilting from it, I could care less.....the problem for him was I had a large stack so I could easily come after him more and make him make tougher decisions for his tourny life. Yeh this is great if your a great player vs a bad player, but him being OOP and having a 1/3 of my stack seems like -ev for him to show that bluff.

-If you care about the money in a MTT you're losing alot of profit - its funny how money is such a big influence in MTTs and how alot of people play. This was definitely me not too long ago, tightening up in bigger MTTs late...the problem is to win that 25k you need to have every chip in play, so don't think about trying to survive, but how can you accumulate. The amount of luck late in mtts is insane, so play to win. I think subconciously the payouts can affect people and they dont realize it. Just go for the win

-raise/folding - alot of spots it seems people will raise/call way too light with stuff like weak aces, K10s, etc against players who are simply not reshoving that wide - I think we got it driled into our heads that raise/folding to stack that are under 20 bbs is just bad but if theyre not reshoving that wide its perfectly fine. Id be curious to run some math on what range a villan needs to reshove to make raise/folding unprofitable. Alot of times people aren't reshoving light as we would suspect because the general consensus is the original raiser isn't folding. I tend to raise/fold alot on AP since the majority of AP players aren't reshoving anywhere near what they do on stars or tilt. Its just crazy how wide some people call

-bluff lines - when setting up a bluff its good to represent a hand unless your bluffing against a total idiot whos just paying attention to making a hand....sometimes I find myself running a bluff line that makes no sense - why do I do this? laziness I guess....I had a hand come up tonight where I had ATs in UTG+2 to a 7 man table. I raise 2.5x with like 40 bbs. SB calls who seems not that great with like 25 bbs behind. Normally with his stack I'd be hesistent to get testy with him postflop, since usually when people are calling with stacks near that 20 bb threshold theyre not folding often, but I didn't think he was all that great. Anyways flop comes J83 two hearts - he checks, I check back. no clue why I don't fire. turn comes Qs, he checks so I decide to fire 60% pot he calls. River comes a 2, he checks, I fire again, he calls with KQ and I lose. First off him calling with KQ there pre with that stack was bad but I figured he was calling somewhat light. I was just mad I didn't even think about what I was repping - maybe it was late at night and I wanted to sleep who knows....thinking is +ev - i should do that someitme :)

thats all for now. alot of rambling i know but just some ideas that i wanted to get in print. anyways im off to sleep to dream about winning aruba for like 800k and stopping poker for the year. we can dream right?

Slow month - need a vacation

September has been a shitty month thus far - I was down on the month playing up until Monday when I went on a +9500 2 day swing....I took 4th in the 40K Stars for 5k, then the next day took 3rd in the 30k KO on FTP for a little over 4k...I've also had some cashes here and there under 2k to keep me moving....At this point on the month Im +3k with a dismal 11.49% ROI (didn't count my 5500 aruba seat in this figure)....oh well thats MTT poker - I've been feeling alot better about my late game....Ive been getting deep in alot and just getting unlucky - hopefully before the month ends I can get my profits to atleast 10k, but even if I don't I don't mind where Im at.......I've gotten in roughly 230-240 MTTs during the month, so Im definitely on pace to match last month of around 320-340...at this point Im just trying to do no more than 8 tabling, and maybe as I get more comfortable with MTTs/get better, I'll start 10-12 tabling, but for now I'd rather play less volume and keep a higher ROI....Aruba is right around the corner - I leave a week from this Sunday and I'm very excited...this month has been killer on me and I really need a relaxing vacation and a shot at big money with nothing to lose. It really is a great time down there and I wouldn't go anywhere else for vacation. I'll be gone for 6 days, so when I get back I'm going to start grinding real hard so I can keep my volume up for the month. I'm dieing to hit a big score and plan on working real hard to get it. Stay tuned.

won aruba package

september has started and so has a downswing....ive been bricking everything even though ive been happy with my game....ive improved alot in august - reviewed alot on PXF and talked to better players about HHs I had questions on....obviously I have a ton to learn but im feeling good about my playing now - my goals are really to crush AP/Cake and be a decent winner on FTP/Stars - its funny how different Stars and FTP are from AP/Cake - a big winner on AP could be breakeven on those sites, or even a decent AP winner could be a longterm loser....it really is a different ballgame and if your able to beat FTP/Stars at a decent ROI then beating AP is a joke..

so I ended up shipping the 20,000 credit entry Aruba package, where 40 entered and they gave one package away...I played pretty standard the whole way - there was one player who continually would open so eventually I got around to 3 betting him light but found he would not fold to 3 bets so after those spots decided to nit against him...4 handed he was CLin - I basically tried to play some pot control against him postflop and try to see cheap showdowns with my marginal hands....eventually though he never slowed down, so I picked up KK and had him stack me up to the CL.....I took him out and came into HU with 80k to 40k at 500/1k......eventually i got him down to 20k and got A8 in against KQ and held....see u in aruba

August coming to an end - weight loss/get in shape goal for September

So August is coming to an end and I figured Id post up the stats along with my weight loss plan for the month....the week started off good with a +3k day on Monday, but I leaked back that profit throughout the week, which included bricking the 1k on tilt and the 1k on ap....always fun! here was my bustout hand in the 1k

Stage #1853895732 Tourney ID 4570889 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 300 - 2009-08-26 23:59:58.006 (ET) [ 2009-08-26 23:59:58 ]
Table: 17 (Real Money) Seat #6 is the dealer
Seat 6 - Z06FANATIC (6,809 in chips)
Seat 7 - BREAST MILK (4,205 in chips)
Seat 9 - LOCKDOWNTEX (11,435 in chips)
Seat 1 - THEBUBBLE1 (12,397 in chips)
Seat 2 - KRS528 (10,508 in chips)
Seat 3 - ALBARI (9,694 in chips)
Seat 4 - BOANERGES7 (12,735 in chips)
Seat 5 - POTROAST00 (8,896 in chips)
THEBUBBLE1 - Ante 25
KRS528 - Ante 25
ALBARI - Ante 25
BOANERGES7 - Ante 25
POTROAST00 - Ante 25
Z06FANATIC - Ante 25
BREAST MILK - Ante 25
LOCKDOWNTEX - Ante 25
BREAST MILK - Posts small blind 150
LOCKDOWNTEX - Posts big blind 300
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to Z06FANATIC [6c 6s]
THEBUBBLE1 - Folds
KRS528 - Folds (Preselection)
ALBARI - Folds (Preselection)
BOANERGES7 - Folds
POTROAST00 - Folds (Preselection)
Z06FANATIC - Raises 700 to 700
BREAST MILK - Folds
LOCKDOWNTEX - Raises 2,150 to 2,450
Z06FANATIC - All-In(Raise) 6,084 to 6,784
LOCKDOWNTEX - Calls 4,334
*** FLOP *** [3d 4c 8d]
*** TURN *** [3d 4c 8d] [3h]
*** RIVER *** [3d 4c 8d 3h] [Qh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Z06FANATIC - Shows [6c 6s] (Two Pair, sixes and threes)
LOCKDOWNTEX - Shows [4s 4d] (Full house, fours full of threes)
LOCKDOWNTEX Collects 13,918 from main pot

I'll be playing about 20-25 mtts on Monday to end the month as well as a 25 seat qualifier to Aruba on Sunday. Ill update my monthly stats if I make anything significant. With that said here's where i stand for August

+13,738.02 MTT profit - 36.21% ROI
+1988.29 in staking
+1000 credits for cash
+554 in rakeback

+16,950.31

As far as the weight loss deal - I got aruba coming up early october and want to get in better shape so I decided to do a 1 month workout/diet plan. I've also been feeling really lazy lately and want to start feeling more active - even when I go to the gym these days I get lazy and leave alot earlier than I should. So my plan is to start on Monday and go one month - I want to hit the gym 4-5 days a week, trying to do 3 miles of running and a short weight training session as well - shouldn't take more than 45 minutes for everything. Eating Im going to keep a low calorie diet with 1 day a week being a maintenence day, and 1 day every 2 weeks being a day where I can eat above maintenence....Im not looking to lose any crazy amount of weight - Im sure 10 pounds is my best bet if that. Regardless though any weight loss would be great, and if it makes me feel more alive Ill definitely enjoy that. Hopefully I can crush that goal and also crush the tables.

First 10k day

Finally had a nice day in MTTs...last thurs I profited like 10.5k after winning the 30k sniper on ap for 7500, taking 2nd in a stars 20r for 3800, and a couple cashes here and there....it felt nice finally to show some decent profit for the month, as I was hovering around breakeven/+3k......Ive been looking at some HH's from top players along with talking to people about tournament poker and watching alot of PXF vids, so I'm definitely improving here and there.....I've also really stepped up the aggression on AP - the site is super soft and the players are very passive compared to Stars/FTP...Actually theres alot of adjustments to make playing AP vs the main sites - I open alot lighter, play more aggressively post flop, and call shoves alot lighter. Its funny how I can play a tournament like the 30k sniper and never get 3 bet outside of big hands, then play a 20 rebuy on Stars and have guys 3 betting me so light....Its definitely a big change, and alot of times I find myself having to fold hands that I would normally snap so quick on Stars....I've also started staking my stakee again - I talk with him alot about poker and he plays very well - hes already staked on stars/tilt, so I took him up on AP. My only problem is I worry he won't put in the volume, but if he does he should have no problem crushing...tomorrow I got the 1k to play on AP that I qualified earlier this week and the 80k sniper.....my only goal with these tournaments is to play semi well and not make dumb mistakes - I make a terrible play in the 6 max AP 20k today that I was pissed about, so hopefully Im not lighting money on fire tomorrow...heres the stats for the month thus far

+13,427
52% ROI
234 MTTs played

Not the August start I was looking for

August has started a little slow - now I cant really complain as I'm still up for the month +2915 with a 24% ROI, I just expected a little better....Ive had one win on the month thus far, and a ton of getting to the final table and not getting top 3.....I don't think people realize how much MTTers spend in buy ins each week - I didn't even realize it till I started doing this full time....This month I've already spent 12,100 in buy ins, and even with 15,000 in cashes Im only up a couple grand. Crazy to think about. The one thing that I have felt good about lately is my late game play - I use to mentally think about the payouts and how much more I'd make moving up a certain place - after making alot of FT's with dissapointment, I guess I dont get my hopes up anymore when Im deep with two tables left....My goal is to win and I could careless about cashing for 2k, consideirng that just covers a day of buy ins....Hopefully my winning attitude translates over to actually winning some more tournaments :(

I also bought a new external monitor - its a 25" by Hanspree - some no name, but it was 250 bucks and does wonders for how many tables I can do. Now I can 10 table with basically no overlap, where before 8 tables was my max. If I can fit 4-5 more MTTs in per day that would be great and definitely worth the investment....My goal with the new monitor is to get in 25 MTTs a day, and try to do 100 a week. At 100 mtts a week, 400 a month, I should be able to invest 40,000 in MTT buy ins, and even at a 50% ROI thats 20,000 a month. I'm pretty sure thats possible to do, considering sites like AP/Cake where I do 7 MTTs of the 25 a day are prob 80% ROI sites, I just don't know what I can expect on Stars/FTP longterm. Either way I'm going to continue the MTTs for a while and see how things work out. Wish me luck.

July wrapup

July has came to an end, and because OPR/PokerDB are pretty inaccurate I don't have an exact figure on profit. PokerDB missed a ton of FTP this month - even AP looks low, and since Cake isn' t tracked it makes things even harder....I could rummage through account balances but Im too lazy so I'll try to give a ballpark figure. I did well once again this month on AP, lost on Stars, slightly up on FTP, and maybe even on Cake? I think Im looking at +7k roughly, so we'll go with that number for now. For August I'll be able to give exact amounts as a fellow poker player made a great spreadsheet where I just enter in the buy in and the result and the excel sheet calculates the rest....

Last week I had a brief 3 day trip to the Borgata in AC- we ended up playing about 10-12 hours of poker over the 3 days - all 2/5 NL. I didn't feel like getting tied down to MTTs while I was out there, and the 2/5 NL game is soft so I figured I'd give it a shot. I ended up maybe +450 on the trip - Im easily a winner in the game but shear boredom made me make some -ev plays...Another issue is figuring out chip stacks - I had one hand where an aggressive player opened in MP1 to 20 or 25 pre, 1 guy calls, I call out of BB with Q10s. Flop comes 244 with 2 spades. First guy checks , I check, original raiser bets something like 60 into a 80 dollar pot....I take a look over at his stack and decide to make it 175 to go with the intention of calling his shove.....It looked like he started the hand with 300 or so, so really the only course of action here is to c/r commit myself and hopefully get him to lay down on the flop here.....at this point he goes all in and I ask the dealer how much more it is to me......Dealer says something like 245 more to you - d'oh. Apparently he had like 450 to start the hand, and I had that covered, so here I am stacking off a FD for nearly 100 bbs effective, oops.....Anyways he turns over KK, I dont get there and now Im realoading another 500....its funny how when the money is infront of you how much things change - online I could careless about 500 but taking it out of your wallet and placing it on the felt is a little different feeling...

It was a fun though and a nice change of pace...It is wierd getting use to the chips though - alot of times I was making a bet and taking forever to count out as alot of times your dealing with the 5 dollar chips and they love to stick together....It definitely felt akward....another thing is how dirty the poker room is - those chips have been all over the place and I dont think they ever clean them or replace them for long periods of time....playing live poker and eating food immediately after with your hands is -ev and I wish I washed my hands more when I was down there...

more to come half way through the month - now back to losing this ftp 50r1r1a